It’s must-see television when Cliff Lee and David Price square off on Wednesday afternoon.
Odds provided by PinnacleSports.com.
SERIES ODDS: Tampa Bay Rays (-139) vs. Texas Rangers (+128)
PITCHING
Wednesday’s tilt between Cliff Lee (12-9, 3.18) and David Price (19-6, 2.72) represents the best series-opening pitching matchup of the first round. Lee was 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA in five postseason starts last year, but is 0-3 against the Rays this season. Price is 9-2 with a 1.96 ERA at Tropicana Field in 2010.
The Rangers will start C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis in games two and three respectively, while the Rays will counter with Matt Garza and Wade Davis. It’s been a long season for Davis, but he has pitched well down the stretch. In his last five appearances, the 25-year-old right-hander has allowed just eight runs in 28 2-3 innings of work.
Both teams are strong in the bullpen. Rays relievers led the American League with a 3.33 ERA, while the Rangers were second at 3.38. Rafael Soriano has been brilliant at the back of the Rays’ bullpen, recording a league-leading 45 saves in 48 chances. Neftali Feliz has been almost as good for Texas, saving 40 games in 43 tries.Feliz hasn’t allowed a run in his last 16 appearances, a stretch over which he’s surrendered only six hits.
It’s a close call, but we think Lee’s recent postseason success gives them the advantage.
Slight Edge: Rangers
OFFENSE
Speed is the name of the game for the Rays, who rank third in the majors in runs scored despite being last in the American League in batting average (.247). In Carl Crawford and BJ Upton, Tampa Bay has two of the league’s most dangerous threats on the base paths. By themselves, Crawford and Upton combined for more steals (89) than twelve major league teams. With his contract expiring at the end of the season, Carl Crawford could earn himself a boatload of money if his performance in the playoffs is as good as it was in the regular season.
The Rays hope that Evan Longoria’s health isn’t an issue when the playoffs get underway. Longoria hasn’t played since Sept. 23 because of a strained quad. Manager Joe Maddon says that Longoria’s absence was precautionary, but the situation bears watching. Longoria will be in the lineup Wednesday night, but the Rays will really miss his pop if he is limited.
The Rangers have injury worries of their own. AL batting champion Josh Hamilton missed most of September with two broken ribs. Hamilton played in all three games of last weekend’s series against Anaheim. He collected three hits, including his 32nd home run of the season, but admitted feeling some tightness and soreness. Hamilton means as much to the Rangers as Longoria does to the Rays, if not more. If Hamilton’s sore ribs diminish his power at the plate, the Rangers are in trouble.
Vladimir Guerrero was essentially left on the scrap heap in the offseason when Texas signed him to a modest one-year deal with a mutual option for 2011. Guerrero has responded with a huge season, batting .300 with 29 homers and 115 RBI.
Texas excels at putting the ball in play. The Rangers are batting a major league-leading .276 and have the fourth-fewest strikeouts in baseball (986).
We respect Texas’ efficiency up and down the lineup, but Tampa Bay’s speed at the top of its lineup is lethal, especially late in close games, which this series figures to have plenty of.
Slight Edge: Rays
INTANGIBLES
The Rays have more playoff experience, and home field advantage is key considering the Rangers are three games below .500 on the road. Tampa Bay has an advantage in the late innings because of its ability to manufacture runs and its strong bullpen. We think the Rays capitalize on that and win a close series.
Pick: Rays in five games.
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