NLDS preview and pick: Phillies vs. Reds

The Reds have been a feel-good story this season but will their no-name rotation cost them against the two-time defending National League champs and World Series favorites Phillies?

Odds provided by PinnacleSports.com.

SERIES ODDS: Philadelphia Phillies (-270) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+245)

PITCHING

The Phillies did themselves a huge favor by putting up the National League’s best record.  Not only will Philadelphia have home field throughout the playoffs, but its status as the top seed allowed the club to choose an eight-day schedule for its NLDS matchup. That means the Phillies can go with an intimidating three-man rotation of Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels without having any of them pitch on short rest.

The Reds will go with Edinson Volquez in Game 1 followed by Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto. Volquez missed the first half of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery, and struggled on his return but has looked much better lately. He’s allowed just six runs over 27 2-3 innings while racking up 31 strikeouts over his last four starts.

The Reds and Phillies have both been very average in relief, but we give Philadelphia a slight edge because its group is fresher. Philadelphia relievers pitched an MLB-low 415 innings this season – a testament to the ability of its starters to work deep into games.
 
Brad Lidge has been nearly unhittable in the second half of the season. Since the All-Star break, Lidge has converted 21 of 23 save opportunities while holding opposing hitters to a .157 average.

Edge: Phillies

OFFENSE

Cincinnati’s lineup is one of the most potent in the National League in 2010. They lead the league in a host of offensive categories including batting average (.271), home runs (187) and runs per game (4.9). Joey Votto has had an MVP-caliber season batting .324 with 37 homers and 113 RBIs. Votto is hitting .393 against the Phillies in 28 at-bats. The Reds are batting an NL-best .278 with runners in scoring position.

The Phillies’ lineup is smoking hot, averaging 5.6 runs per game since the start of September. Over that same stretch, the Reds have averaged just 4.2 runs per game. 

Jayson Werth had a big September belting eight homers and piling up 20 RBIs. Werth is Philadelphia’s most dangerous batter against righties, hitting a team-high 20 home runs off right-handed pitching. With Cincinnati using three right-handed starters to begin the series and Werth playing for a new contract, we think this could be his time to shine. 
 
The Reds have had the more productive lineup over the course of the season, but you can’t ignore the fact that the Phillies are red hot at the right time and their lineup is full of players who’ve come up with big hits in October.

Slight Edge: Phillies

INTANGIBLES

The gritty, battle-tested Phillies have ample playoff experience while many of the Reds’ key players are playing in their first ever postseason. To make matters worse for Cincinnati, the Phillies have all the momentum. At 21-6, Philadelphia had the best record in baseball in September. The Reds have good talent, and we think there’s postseason success in Cincinnati’s future – but not this year. 

Pick: Phillies in three games