7월30일 best MLB bets

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals (150, 8)

The Phillies will start newly acquired righthander Roy Oswalt in this one, but that's not the pitching matchup that matters.
 
The have absolutely crushed Craig Stammen in their previous two meetings this season, cranking out a combined 16 hits and 11 earned runs in just 6 1/3 innings.

That's an ERA of 15.63 - a number that more closely resembles the Redskins' average points per game than a Nationals pitcher's earned-run average.

And it's not just Philly that's rocking his world. After being sent back to the minors to work on his mental game, Stammen is 0-2 in July, allowing 25 hits and 15 earned runs in 19 2/3 innings.

Not exactly big-league numbers, but with Stephen Strasburg becoming Washington's fifth starter on the DL this season, it's all hands on deck for the shorthanded Nats.

"It's not anything physical," Stammen said of his recent struggles on the mound. "It's how I'm thinking out there, a little bit, and sticking to the game plan little more - having conviction with my pitches."

The Phillies are not the team to face if you're short on confidence these days. They have won seven straight and outscored opponents by a combined score of 43-15 during that span. Look for their surging lineup to be slammin' Stammen.

Pick: Phillies

Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies (-125, 9)

The Rockies have been struggling to score runs lately, tallying a total of just 17 during their current eight-game losing streak.

They will need more offense than that against the Cubs, who have pounded lefthanded starter Jeff Francis like a drum to the tune of an 8.77 ERA in five meetings.

The Cubbies have been hitting southpaws at a .333 clip in their last 10 and look to do some more damage at hitter-friendly Coors Field.

They trot out righthander Ryan Dempster, who is 2-0 since the All-Star break, 2-0 against the NL West this year and 2-0 in his last two meetings with the Rockies.

Pick: Cubs

Streaking

Ervin Santana (9-7, 3.55 ERA), Los Angeles Angels

The Angels can’t seem to make up any ground on the division-leading Rangers. Taking advantage of solid performances from their starting hurlers would certainly help out. Ervin Santana is enjoying a fantastic July with a 2.30 ERA, but the Halos are just 1-3 in his four starts this month.

Santana, who sometimes has a habit of getting taken out of the park, has surrendered just two big flies in the 31 1/3 innings this month. Not surprisingly, the under is 4-0 in his last four outings and 7-3 in his last 10 trips to the bump.

Wade Davis (8-9, 4.32 ERA), Tampa Bay Rays

Davis, sometimes forgotten in TB’s stacked five-man rotation, is 3-0 in his last three starts with a 2.11 ERA. The under is 7-1 in the 24-year-old righty’s last eight starts. 

Johnny Cueto (10-2, 3.18 ERA), Cincinnati Reds

It seems like we’re praising Cueto every five days in this space. He pitched eight innings of shut-out ball in his last start improving to 4-0 in his last six appearances.

“I went out there today just concentrating on my location more,” Cueto told reporters through a translator. “I wanted to make sure I did not go out there and over throw. I just feel better and better every time I go out there.”

The Reds are 13-7 in games started by Cueto, but they’ve never been priced higher than -174 with him on the bump.

Slumping

Phil Hughes (12-3, 4.04 ERA), New York Yankees

You wouldn’t be able to tell Phil Hughes was slumping if you just looked at the win-loss column. The Georgia native is 2-2 in his last five starts despite owning a 6.52 ERA over the same period.

The over is also 10-2 in his last 12 appearances.